Demand

Sabrina Hajiani

24th May 2013

Laboore Terrell

Global Operations Management

American Intercontinental University

Certification of Authorship: I certify that I am the author of this paper and that any assistance received in its preparation is fully acknowledged and disclosed in this paper. I have also cited any sources from which I used data, ideas, words, either quoted directly or paraphrased. I also certify that this paper was prepared by me especially for this course.

Abstract

In this paper, I will discuss about Moving Average. I will solve problem of 3 period moving average and 5 period moving average.

Table of Content

Demand using a 3 period moving average………………………………………………………P4

Demand using a 5 period moving average………………………………………………………P5

Graph…………………………………………………………………………………………….P6

Forecast…………………………………………………………………………………………..P6

Demand using a 3 period moving average

t | Demand | 3MA | Error | |Error| | % |Error| | MSE (3MA) |

1 | 200 |   |   |   |   |   |

2 | 134 |   |   |   |   |   |

3 | 157 | 163.7 |   |   |   |   |

4 | 165 | 152.0 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 0.81 | 1.77 |

5 | 177 | 166.3 | 25.00 | 25.00 | 14.12 | 625.00 |

6 | 125 | 155.7 | -41.33 | 41.33 | 33.07 | 1708.17 |

7 | 146 | 149.3 | -9.67 | 9.67 | 6.62 | 93.51 |

8 | 150 | 140.3 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.44 | 0.45 |

9 | 182 | 159.3 | 41.67 | 41.67 | 22.89 | 1736.39 |

10 | 197 | 176.3 | 37.67 | 37.67 | 19.12 | 1419.03 |

11 | 136 | 171.7 | -40.33 | 40.33 | 29.66 | 1626.51 |

12 | 163 | 165.3 | -8.67 | 8.67 | 5.32 | 75.17 |

13 | 157 | 152.0 | -8.33 | 8.33 | 5.31 | 69.39 |

14 | 169 | 163.0 | 17.00 | 17.00 | 10.06 | 289.00 |

* MAD= Mean Absolute Deviation

MAD=Average (231.67)

MAD=21.06

* MSE= Mean square Error

Each Error is squared in MSE Table

MSE=Sum (7664.38)/10

MSE=764.44

* MAPE= Mean absolute percentage Error

MAPE=Average (147.42)

MAPE=13.4

Demand using a 5 period moving average

t | Demand | 5MA |...