Chapter 1

Chapter 1: Outline

Need for Psychological Science

Hindsight bias and judgmental overconfidence show that we cannot rely on

intuition and common sense. Critical thinking must also be employed in order to

 perceive facts from nonsense.

Hindsight Bias

The thought that once a person find out the outcome, that the person knew the

outcome all along and could have predicted it.

Proves that we need psychological research

Common sense describes what has happened more easily than predict what will

happen

Overconfidence

Thinking is limited

Even when you are 100% sure about something, self prediction may change up to

15% of the time.

When prediction becomes wrong, individual’s attempt the ‘I was close’ excuse

Often leads to the overestimation of our potential.

Skepticism and humility must be added to come back to reality

Scientific Attitude

Sometimes refutes skeptics

Being skeptical but not cynical, open but not gullible

Skeptical testing could separate the real facts

Requires skepticism and humility

Need to reject our own ideas

Copernicus and Newton, are examples of people who used the scientific attitude

Critical Thinking examines assumptions, discerns hidden values, evaluates

evidence and assess’s conclusion without blindly accepting arguments and

conclusions.

Scientific Method

Scientific Theory explains through principles that organizes and predicts

 behaviors or events.

By organizing isolated facts, theory simplifies things.

Connection of observed dots, we may discover a pattern

Hypothesis is testable prediction, often started by a theory

Research allows one to test or reject the theory

Operational Definition is a statement of the procedures used to define research

variables.

Replication when a procedure could be repeated with different participants in

different situations to see whether the same result is found.

A theory is successful if it links and organizes observed facts and if it implies

hypothesis that...