Gm 533 - Managerial Statistics - Crime Rates

I. Statement of Goal/Problem Statement/Research Question

There are several perceptions about the causes of property crime in the United States. Many believe that the degree of property crime is determined by various factors including per capita income for each state, percentage of public aid recipients, high school dropout rates and many more. This project seeks to provide evidence for or against some of these common perceptions about property crime. Specifically it seeks to answer the questions: are crime rates higher in urban than rural areas? Does unemployment or education level contribute to property crime rates? Other independent variables that will be studied include public aid for families with children, population density, and average precipitation in the major city in each state.

II. Description of Sample

Data for this study was obtained from the course textbook which stated the sources as being for all the 50 states of the US (i.e. sample size of 50) and were gathered from various sources, including a variety of US government sources, among which are: the 1988 Uniform Crime Reports, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Office Research and Statistics, Social Security Administration, The Commerce Department and other government sources. The variables analyzed are as follows:

CRIMES - Property crime rate per hundred thousand inhabitants (includes burglary, larceny, theft, and motor vehicle theft) calculated as number of property crimes committed divided by total population/100.

PINCOME - Per capita income for each state,

DROPOUT - High school dropout rate (%, 1987)

PRECIP - Average precipitation (in inches) in the major city in each state over 1951 – 1980.

PUBAID - Percentage of public aid recipients (1987)

DENSITY - Population/total square miles.

KIDS - Public aid for families with children (dollars per family)

UNEMPLOY - Percentage of unemployed workers

URBAN - Percentage of the residents living in urban areas.

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