Eco550 Week 3 Discussions

*Answer the following discussions based on the Katrina’s Candies scenario:

* From the scenario for Katrina’s Candies, assuming the absence of quantitative data, determine the qualitative forecasting techniques that could be used within this scenario.

Qualitative forecasting methods include Expert Opinion, consumer surveys, and Delphi method.

* Now, assume you have acquired some time series data that would enable you to make short, medium, and long term forecasts. Ascertain the quantitative technique that will provide you with the most accurate forecast. Provide a rationale for your responses.

Time-series methods are probably the simplest methods to deploy and can be quite accurate, particularly over the short term. Most quantitative forecasting methods try to explain patterns in historical data as a means of using those patterns to forecast future patterns. (Mason, 2006)

Exponential smoothing would be the best technique in this case. With moving averages, every data point carries equal weight in making the forecast. With smoothing methods, more importance is placed on the most recent data than on the historical data. If there's a trend in the data, it'll use the recent observations to make up the bulk of the forecast, and the forecast is more likely to reflect the trend. (Mason, 2006)

Moving averages and simple exponential smoothing techniques are available in Excel and easy to execute. That's part of the great advantage of time-series methods: they're generally simple, cheap to run, and relatively easy to interpret. (Mason, 2006)

Mason, Neil. July 25, 2006.. Forecasting Techniques, Part1: Quantitative Methods. ClickZ.com. Retrieved from: http://www.clickz.com/clickz/column/1695851/forecasting-techniques-part-quantitative-methods

DISCUSSION 2

* Aside from maximizing profits, list the key factors that managers should consider when deciding whether or not to outsource offshore. Determine the key factors that you believe to be the most...