Poverty in Syria

United Nations Development Programme

POVERTY IN SYRIA: 1996-2004

DIAGNOSIS AND PRO-POOR POLICY CONSIDERATIONS

Heba El Laithy∗

(Principal Investigator)

Khalid Abu-Ismail

June 2005

∗

Heba El Laithy is Professor of Statistics at Cairo University and author of many publications on poverty and

inequality in Egypt.

Khalid Abu-Ismail is UNDP’s Regional Policy Advisor on Macroeconomics and Poverty Reduction at the SubRegional Resource Facility for Arab States (Bureau of Development Policy), Beirut.

Abbreviations and Acronyms

BMR

CBS

CBN

CPI

CSO

EU

FDI

FHH

FY

GDP

GNI

HDR

H.E.

HIES

HH

IFAD

INP

MHH

NFD

NGO

ODA

P0

P1

P2

PPP

SL

SME

SURF

TFP

UN

UNDP

WHO

-

Basal Metabolic Rate

Central Bureau of Statistics

Cost of Basic Needs

Consumer Price Index

Central Statistical Office

European Union

Foreign Direct Investment

Female-Headed Household(s)

Fiscal Year

Gross Domestic Product

Gross National Income

Human Development Report

His Excellency

Household Income and Expenditures Survey

Household

International Fund for Agricultural Development

Institute of National Planning

Male-Headed Household(s)

Net Foreign Demand

Non-Governmental Organisation

Official Development Assistance

Measure of Incidence of Poverty

Measure of Depth of Poverty

Measure of Severity of Poverty

Purchasing Power Parity

Syrian Lira

Small and Micro Enterprise

Sub-Regional Resource Facility for Arab States

Total Factor Productivity

United Nations

United Nations Development Programme

World Health Organisation

UNDP Syria

TABLE OF CONTENTS

PREFACE

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY……………………...………….........….....1

INTRODUCTION……………………...………….........….....……….7

CHAPTER 1. THE SYRIAN ECONOMY IN EARLY 2000s……...10

1.1 Overview...…………..…………………………..……………..…………..….... 10

1.2 Growth and its Sources…...……………………..……………..…………..….... 12

1.3 The Poverty Growth Nexus…………..…………...……………………..…....... 16

1.4 Unemployment………………….………………...………………………...……18

1.5 Inflation and Fiscal Policy…………………………………………….…..….… 19

1.6 Trade and Foreign Direct...