Demand Forecasting

IBM4710 International Operations Management In-class assignment: (Demand Forecasting) The company has recorded the previous demand of two countries during the year 2000-2002 as shown in the following table (in unit). You are required to: 1) Describe the nature of the demand for each country. 2) Forecasting demand for assigned country by using the following techniques; a) 2 quarter moving average b) 4 quarter moving average c) 3 quarter weighted average (Wt-1 =0.5, Wt-2=0.3 and Wt-3=0.2) d) 3 quarter weighted average (Wt-1 =0.2, Wt-2=0.3 and Wt-3=0.5) e) Exponential smoothing with 0.1 alpha (FVt-1 (2000) = ADt-1) f) Exponential smoothing with 0.5 alpha g) Trend forecast (with Y= 333.57x + 2816.3, where as x=no of quarter (x 2000.1=1, x 2001.1=5 and x 2002.1=9) h) Ratio-to-Trend for seasonal factor 3) Recommend the appropriate forecasting technique (s) for each country and explain reason.

Country B 3344 3076 3470 4517 4383 3769 4251 5534 5745 4940 5573 7254 4655

2000

2001

2002

Quarter 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 ave

A 3344 3578 3828 4096 4383 4690 5018 5369 5745 6147 6578 7038 4842

C 3344 4013 4815 5778 6934 7627 8390 7131 6062 5152 4379 3723 5612

Answer: 2003.1 Techniques a) 2 quarter moving average b) 4 quarter moving average c) 3 quarter weighted average (Wt-1 =0.5, Wt-2=0.3 and Wt-3=0.2) d) 3 quarter weighted average (Wt-1 =0.2, Wt-2=0.3 and Wt-3=0.5) e) Exponential smoothing with 0.1 alpha f) Exponential smoothing with 0.5 alpha g) Trend forecast h) Ratio-to-Trend for seasonal factor

Demand forecast assignment (Dr.Chayakrit Asvathitanont) For IBM4710: In-Class and for students use only.

Demand forecast assignment (Dr.Chayakrit Asvathitanont) For IBM4710: In-Class and for students use only.

Answer (1) To understand the nature of each country demand, the graphic illustration has shown.

9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000.1 2000.2 2000.3 2000.4 2001.1 2001.2 2001.3 2001.4 2002.1 2002.2 2002.3 2002.4 A B C

The nature of country...