Mat 540 Forecast Slides

FORECASTING

How does it affect you?

Strayer University

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What is a Forecast?

A Forecast is a prediction of what will occur in the future, as stated by Taylor (2011). Everyday life consist of people making personal and business decisions that will affect our future without knowing all variables for the situations. These decisions can be made individually or as a group.

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Informational Forecasts that Affect Our Decisions in Life

Car sales – Nissan/Honda/BMW Harvest of crops – corn/wheat/fruit Investment growth or decline (stock market) – Dow/Facebook/ Apple Future job opportunities – Compliance/Health/Teachers New technology – IPAD/E-reader/Tablets New Product Development – Upgraded or a newly established design of an item. Housing Rates – 3.25% thru 9.28%

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SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Sales Volume GM Ford Toyota Chrysler Honda Nissan Industry

May-12 Forecast 246,321 222,712 205,391 164,083 135,908 97,545 1,391,163

11-May 221,192 191,537 108,387 115,363 90,773 76,148 1,061,132

12-Apr 213,387 179,658 178,044 141,165 122,012 71,329 1,184,027

Change from Change from May 2011* Apr 2012 11.40% 15.40% 16.30% 24.00% 89.50% 15.40% 42.20% 16.20% 49.70% 11.40% 28.10% 36.80% 31.10% 17.50%

Reference: Edmunds.com May Auto Sales Forecast: Steady Pace Continues as Summer Approaches Published: 05/24/2012 (http://www.edmunds.com/about/press/edmundscom-may-auto-sales-forecaststeady-pace-continues-as-summer-approaches.html)

The autoregressive moving average model (ARMA) is a type of forecast used for vehicles with sufficient history, otherwise smoothing methods may be used. In either case , human interaction is necessary to ensure thorough analysis and forecasting.

http://www.businessmonitor.com/BM4/help/methodology_autos.html

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Fruit & Nut Forecast

Farmers, restaurant owners and consumers can analyze this data based on grower-reported average yields, objective-measurement modeled yields, historical differences...