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Thematic Resources (Population/Demography)

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Demographic transition

ASHISH BOSE THE 21st century will witness a gradual transition to an ageing society the world over. The process which first started in low fertility western societies and in Japan is now spreading to the developing countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America. Countries like China and India will not only be at the forefront in terms of absolute number of total population, but also in terms of absolute number of the elderly (60+) population. In brief, the long term impact of decline in fertility and reduction in the size of family will lead to a decrease in the population of children (0-14 years), which in turn will push up the population in the working age group. Depending on the decline in fertility and mortality rates and the increase in the expectation of life, this will lead to an increasing proportion of the elderly after a time lag. A greying of the population is inevitable and one must understand its implications. Paul Wallace1, a popular writer, dramatically describes this phenomenon as ‘agequake’. If we understand the implications of ageing, agequake will not descend on us unexpectedly like an earthquake with death and destruction all around. Instead, we will be prepared to face a world converging on the elderly. In his recent book, Understanding Greying People of India, Arun P. Bali2 has put together a set of papers commissioned by the Indian Council of Social Science Research (ICSSR). He rightly points out that the elderly are more vulnerable than younger persons to social and economic hardships because, ‘in the process of development, poor sections lose ground in relative and perhaps also in absolute terms.’ This may mean that apart from an increase in the elderly population, the population of the elderly poor will increase. A comparative account of the elderly in India is presented by S. Irudaya Rajan and his colleagues3 in another recent publication, India’s Elderly:...