The Jihadist Threat in America: Post 9-11 and the Social Influence of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isil)

NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE

NUMBER 150-14

The Jihadist Threat in America: Post 9-11 and the Social Influence of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL)

I. SCOPE NOTE

A. This National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) will address the numerous national security risks that many countries already face by providing background information on key attacks since 9/11, discussing recent developments by terrorist groups through social media, and offering a likely judgments and projection for the future.

B. The scope of this NIE is limited to only the internal threats facing the U.S. from citizens, lawful permanent residents (LPR), aliens (resident and non-resident), or unlawful aliens. This NIE will not address terrorist activity against the U.S. conducted by foreigners fighters, radicalized abroad, that enter the U.S. to plot an attack. Moreover, this NIE is limited to only those individuals that have been influenced or radicalized into conducting attacks on the U.S. within the ideological teachings of Islam or by known Islamic terror group.

C. This NIE incorporates all intelligence reporting as of 20 November 2014.

II. KEY JUDGMENTS AND PROJECTIONS

A. The threat of homegrown jihad has increased within the U.S. since the attacks on 9/11. Thus far, this threat has resulted in plots or attacks and many U.S. citizens killed or injured. As the Middle East becomes more destabilized and U.S. military operations persist in countries like Iraq and Syria, the likelihood of Middle Eastern public opinion of the U.S. will wane. Additionally, as emerging terrorist groups such as ISIL are able to tap into the susceptibility of citizens, that harbor radicalized beliefs, through online methods, the opportunity to recruit individuals will increase.

B. With horrific attacks such as beheadings and suicide bombings against U.S. citizens, aimed at inspiring other jihadists and swaying the public opinion of a protracted war in the Middle East, groups...