Goup Think Recondsiered

Groupthink Reconsidered GLEN WHYTE University of Toronto History and the daily newspaper provide examples of policy deci- sions made by groups that resulted in fiascoes. The making of such decisions is frequently attributed to the groupthink phenomenon. A different perspective on the occurrence of policy fiascoes, prospect polarization, is offered. This approach employs, in addition to the pressures for uniformity of groupthink, the notions of framing effects, risk seeking in the domain of losses, and group polarization. The applicability of these theoretical mechanisms to several notorious decision fiascoes, past and present, is discussed. Several authors (e.g., Bazerman, Giuliano & Appelman, 1984; Janis, 1972, 1982; Jervis, 1976; Staw, 1981; Tuchman, 1984) have written about groups' pursuit of disadvantageous policies af- ter the risks of doing so have become apparent. Janis (1972, 1982) and Tuchman (1984) in partic- ular focused on a variety of historically notewor- thy decision fiascoes that moved them to specu- late about why people in authority frequently act contrary to enlightened self-interest by mak- ing decisions that are likely to be counterpro- ductive. Examples of such decisions include, among others, the American failure in Vietnam, the Kennedy administration's decision to invade Cuba at the Bay of Pigs, and the Watergate cover-up. The critical question from an analyti- cal point of view is whether or not any pattern can be recognized from decisions of this sort, or are these simply difficult decisions that unfortu- nately went awry? This paper will advance and integrate some theoretical determinants of excessive risk taking in group decision making, the consequences of which have been described as fiascoes. Risk, as it is used here, refers to the probability and the value of the outcomes associated with an act. A risky decision is one that rejects a certain out- come in favor of a gamble of equal or lower expected value. To qualify for inclusion in...