Epicast Report: Gout - Epidemiology Forecast to 2023

EpiCast Report: Gout - Epidemiology Forecast to 2023

Gout is a type of inflammatory arthritis. The disease is triggered by the crystallization of uric acid within the joints and is associated with hyperuricemia, a condition in which the body either overproduces or under excretes uric acid. Attacks of gout are episodic in nature and although months may pass before the next attack occurs, the pain experienced during an attack can be debilitating. Men are at a higher risk for developing gout and the risk also increases with age, with a mean age at diagnosis for gout in both men and women of 61 years. GlobalData epidemiologists forecast an increase in both the diagnosed incident cases and diagnosed prevalent cases of gout in the 6MM, from 1,374,065 diagnosed incident cases in 2013 to 1,649,065 diagnosed incident cases in 2023, at an annual growth rate (AGR) of 2.00%, and 13,750,047 diagnosed prevalent cases in 2013 to 17,625,944 diagnosed prevalent cases in 2023, at an AGR of 2.82%. This forecast is supported by ageand sex-specific data obtained from country-specific estimates from peer reviewed journal articles, in which the study populations were representative of the general population in the respective markets. GlobalData epidemiologists used historical diagnosed incidence and diagnosed prevalence data which were available for Italy and the UK, along with linear regression methods to forecast the ageand sex-specific diagnosed incidence and diagnosed prevalence for Italy and the UK through 2023. The forecast provides the ageand sex-specific diagnosed incident cases and diagnosed prevalent cases of gout in each of the 6MM, with clinically relevant segmentations, which facilitate an in depth understanding of the emerging temporal trends, and informs strategies to improve the management of the disease. Additionally, GlobalData epidemiologists used the same methodology across the 6MM, which allows for a meaningful comparison of the forecast diagnosed incident cases...