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REAL LIFE EXAMPLES IN MEDICAL STATISTICS

1. Here’s an example where the Poisson distribution was used in a maternity hospital to work out how many births would be expected during the night.

The hospital had 3000 deliveries each year, so if these happened randomly around the clock 1000 deliveries would be expected between the hours of midnight and 8.00 a.m. This is the time when many staff are off duty and it is important to ensure that there will be enough people to cope with the workload on any particular night.

The average number of deliveries per night is 1000/365, which is 2.74. From this average rate the probability of delivering 0,1,2, etc babies each night can be calculated using the Poisson distribution. Some probabilities are:

P(0) 2.740 e-2.74 / 0! = 0.065

P(1) 2.741 e-2.74 / 1! = 0.177

P(2) 2.742 e-2.74 / 2! = 0.242

P(3) 2.743 e-2.74 / 3! = 0.221

(i) On how many days in the year would 5 or more deliveries be expected? (Ans. 52)

(ii) Over the course of one year, what is the greatest number of deliveries expected in any night? (Ans. 8)

(iii) Why might the pattern of deliveries not follow a Poisson distribution?

(Ans. If deliveries were not random throughout the 24 hours; e.g. if a lot of women had elective caesareans done during the day).

Note: In this real life example, deliveries in fact followed the Poisson distribution very closely, and the hospital was able to predict the workload accurately.

2. Just as you have to take your car for an annual MOT test, many doctors believe it is important for people above a certain age to have an annual check-up. Some general practitioners (GPs) in Luton, Bedfordshire, decided to send letters to all their patients aged 35 to 64 years, inviting them to attend a health check at the practice.

Of the 2678 patients who received invitations, 2205 attended the health check and 473 did not. Some characteristics of attenders and non-attenders are shown in the table.

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