Do Expiring Budgets Lead to Wasteful Year-End Spending? Evidence from Federal Procurement

Do Expiring Budgets Lead to Wasteful Year-End Spending? Evidence from Federal Procurement∗

Jeffrey B. Liebman and Neale Mahoney† November 19, 2010

Abstract Many organizations fund their spending out of a fixed budget that expires at year’s end. Faced with uncertainty over future spending demands, these organizations have an incentive to build a buffer stock of funds over the front end of the budget cycle. When demand does not materialize, they then rush to spend these funds on lower quality projects at the end of the year. We test these predictions using data on procurement spending by the U.S. federal government. Using data on all federal contracts from 2004 through 2009, we document that spending spikes in all major federal agencies during the 52nd week of the year as the agencies rush to exhaust expiring budget authority. Spending in the last week of the year is 4.9 times higher than the rest-of-the-year weekly average. We examine the relative quality of year-end spending using a newly available dataset that tracks the quality of $130 billion in information technology (I.T.) projects made by federal agencies. Consistent with the model, average project quality falls at the end of the year. Quality scores in the last week of the year are 2.2 to 5.6 times more likely to be below the central value. To explore the impact of allowing agencies to roll unused spending over into subsequent fiscal years, we study the I.T. contracts of an agency with special authority to roll over unused funding. We show that there is only a small end-of-year I.T. spending spike in this agency and that the one major I.T. contract this agency issued in the 52nd week of the year has a quality rating that is well above average.

are grateful to Steven Kelman and Shelley Metzenbaum for conversations that stimulated our interest in this topic. Mahoney acknowledges a Kapnick Fellowship and a Ric Weiland Fellowship for financial support. † Liebman: Kennedy School of Government, Harvard...