Probabilistic Methods

Course Project

ENGI 9411

Probabilistic Methods in Engineering

‘Assessment of Iceberg Impact with a Side-Tracking Capable FPSO’

Table of Contents

1. Project Description 3

2. Probabilistic Methods 5

Direct Monte Carlo Method 5

Conditional Expectation Method 6

3. Analysis 7

Direct Monte Carlo Method 7

Conditional Expectation Method 7

4. Results / Conclusions 8

5. References 10

Table of Figures

Figure 1: FPSO required offset distance 4

Figure 2 Direct Monte Carlo Results 8

Figure 3 Conditional Expectation Results 9

Project Description

This report describes a study that was undertaken to determine the effectiveness of a Floating Production Storage Offloading (FPSO) structure operating in a region with ice to prevent ice impact by sidetracking. Side tracking refers to the ability of a facility to move off-station while still connected to production risers. This assessment was necessary to determine the extent to which the integration of side tracking capability would reduce the iceberg impact rate of a proposed project. The facility dimensions and side tracking capability are adjusted in the analysis described in this document since the project material was bound by a confidentiality agreement.

The performance of side tracking was assessed by comparing it to the required offset distance, given an iceberg impact. In other words, an impact was simulated and the distance which the FPSO would have to offset itself to avoid that impact was calculated. This value was then compared to the sidetracking capability of the FPSO to determine if indeed sidetracking could have prevented the iceberg impact. This process is described in the performance function below.

P = S – R (1)

In this equation P refers to the performance of sidetracking capability in preventing an iceberg impact with the FPSO. The parameter S refers to the sidetracking...