Nasa Decision Tree

NASA Orbital Transfer Vehicle – Decision Tree

November 8, 2013

50%

($0)

Go

($0)

Ignore and Pray

($125,000,000)

50%

($250,000,000)

NoGo

($125,000,000)

Program Cost

($45,000,000)

Buy Insurance

($45,000,000)

Program Decision

Alternatives

Legend

Implement Weight

Reduction Program

($25,550,000)

To Page 2

Decision

Chance

Test Vehicle Propulsion

System

($5,102,264)

End Branch

To Page 4

Page 1

NASA Orbital Transfer Vehicle – Decision Tree

November 8, 2013

F1S1A [3% |$15M]

F1S2A [4% |$30M]

Probability Cost

$37,650,000

F1S3A [3% |$30M]

F2S1A [24% |$30M]

Weight Program A

($42,650,000)

F2S2A [32% |$30M]

F2S3A [24% |$60M]

Program Cost

F3S1A [3% |$30M]

($5,000,000)

F3S2A [4% |$30M]

F3S3A [3% |$60M]

From Page 1

Implement Weight

Reduction Program

($25,550,000)

F1S1B [12% |$5M]

F1S2B [15% |$5M]

Probability Cost

$10,550,000

F1S3B [3% |$15M]

F2S1B [24% |$5M]

Weight Program B

($25,550,000)

F2S2B [30% |$15M]

F2S3B [6% |$30M]

Program Cost

F3S1B [4% |$5M]

($15,000,000)

F3S2B [5% |$15M]

F3S3B [1% |$30M]

Page 2

NASA Orbital Transfer Vehicle – Decision Tree

November 8, 2013

95.1%

($0)

85.4%

True Positive

($0)

($1,251,950)

Test Go

($1,069,165)

($25,550,000)

Program Cost

True Negative

($1,251,950)

($4,000,000)

From Page 1

Test Vehicle Propulsion

System

($5,069,165)

4.9%

To Page 4

Probability Cost

($1,069,165)

14.6%

($10,960,950)

Test NoGo

($1,600,298)

False Positive

($0)

57.1%

($0)

False Negative

($10,960,950)

To Page 5

42.9%

($25,550,000)

Page 3

NASA Orbital Transfer Vehicle – Decision Tree

November 8, 2013

F1S1A [3% |$15M]

F1S2A [4% |$30M]

Probability Cost

($37,650,000)

F1S3A [3% |$30M]

F2S1A [24% |$30M]

Weight Program A

($42,650,000)

F2S2A [32% |$30M]

F2S3A [24% |$60M]

Program Cost

F3S1A [3% |$30M]

($5,000,000)

F3S2A [4% |$30M]

F3S3A [3% |$60M]...