New Product Development

Guoliang (Edward) Chen

Product Autopsy: Failure of Cymbalta Launching (GAD) In China

Cymbalta (Duloxetine Hcl) is a serotonin-norepinephrine reuptake inhibitor (SNRI) medicine created

by Eli Lilly. Its indications include major depressive disorder (MDD), generalized anxiety disorder

(GAD), diabetic peripheral neuropathic pain (DPNP) and other chronic muscle or joint pain. Though it

is a classic medicine with more than 10 years history in USA, Eli Lilly just got the approval from CFDA

(China Food and Drug Administration) and launched its DNP indication in China at the end of 2012.

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Launching Plan and Failure

According to the large patient base (12 million, Exhibit 1) and the fact that Cymbalta is the only drug

with indication of DPNP in China by the launching time, the marketing team made a sales estimation

of $50 million for 2013 and $57.5 million for 2014. Because this disease is directly related to diabetes,

marketing team set endocrinologists in general hospitals as their target customers. The major way is

traditional “face-to-face” sales model executed by sales representatives. And the marketing team

believed that even with only 2% of market share, the sales target should be easily achieved. (See the

calculation in Exhibit 2)

But the real number is $20 million for 2013 and $18 million for 2014, while the other brands with no

indication performed better than Cymbalta. (Exhibit 3)

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Failure Factors

Here are top 3 factors for the failure of Cymbalta DPNP launching and the weight of factors

contribution:

1. Poorly Articulated Customer Targeting (60%)

2. Insufficient Customer Awareness (25%)

3. Government Regulation (15%)



Poorly Articulated Customer Targeting

The marketing team set endocrinologists in general hospitals as their target customer, because 60%

of the patients go to them. And accordingly, they deployed sales forces evenly in about 1000

hospitals.

But the truth is that although most of the patients go to...