Course 561 Week 3

Decision of Uncertainty Paper

Nilesh Shah

University of Phoenix, Applied Business Research and Statistics

Professor Elizabeth Shaw

01-25-2010

Decision for Extra Training to cashier

I work in Wal-Mart store. I am currently in-charge of accounting department of store and responsible for accounting the cash that store collect through our register on daily basis. Our store’s profit is drastically reduced because of several reasons like absenteeism, cashier mistakes, etc. Our bonuses are directly linked with profitability and as result our bonus is also affected. Our store manager has assigned job to every department’s manager to improve their department and to increase profitability of their department. My primary investigation goes with cashier. One of the main reasons of our low profitability is cashiers mistake. They are making mistakes and register are coming short and store is losing the money. I have to find is, cashier’s mistake are major factor in store’s loss. Is there any need for giving extra training to cashier or not?

I have to decide whether any more training should be given to cashiers or not? Training to cashiers putting extra burden on our store by way of money and manpower hours, so it is important for us to find that putting extra burden on the store is all worth it or not? If the probability ranges between 0.10 to 0.25 that the cashiers are making mistakes than it is not worth of putting extra burden on store.

To make accurate decision I, have researched my old financial results, Profit and Loss, and maximum number of Register Audit Alert Form that full-time cashiers or part-time cashiers got. Main criteria for cashiers get RAA form is that if cashier’s assigned register is short by $ 20/- or more then they will get RAA form. Bayes’ Theorem will be best suited probability model to support my decision of cashier training and predicting confidence level for giving extra training to cashier.

After...