Columbia

SUBJECT: Intelligence Team Analysis - Colombia

Key Judgments

We have collected various types of data on the target country, Colombia, in anticipation of the possible terrorist attack. The information collected pertains to US assets, vulnerability of their political system, strength of their economy, strength of anti-American sentiment, their strategic position within their geopolitical region, and their diplomatic and economic relationships with the United States. After our analysis of the available information, we have concluded that a terrorist attack on the ranking members of the Colombian government would NOT be a major detriment to the interests of the United States nor would it have a catastrophic impact on the global scale. We have also explored several tactics to counter the terrorist move, and we have analyzed the integrity and accuracy of this report.

1) Should the coup succeed, there would be somewhat significant harm to U.S. assets in the region. There are several military bases in Colombia, approximately 60,000 United States citizens, and 250 businesses residing in the country. There would not be serious harm to the U.S. overall should the coup succeed, however it would create a PR nightmare.

2) The Colombian government is not at risk of disintegration should a coup occur. There is a clearly defined method of succession with several entities being eligible as opposed to just one. First in line is the Vice President, who is chosen by the President and is of the same party as the President. This ensures similar views and would not lead to a hidden power struggle.

3) A coup would likely have a very detrimental effect on Colombia’s economy, but aside from oil imports, would have little effect on the U.S economy. When violence was rampant in the country in the 1980s and 90s, the economy suffered greatly. However, when the violence ceased, the economy grew substantially. A return to violence would most likely have a similar negative effect...