Norther Napa Valley Winery Case Study

Nova Southeastern University

H. Wayne Huizenga School

of Business & Entrepreneurship

Assignment for Course: | QNT5040 |

Submitted to: | Dr. P. Rokicki |

Submitted by: |

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Date of Submission: 11 March 2013

Title of Assignment: Case Study of Northern Napa Valley Winery

CERTIFICATION OF AUTHORSHIP: I certify that I am the author of this paper and that any assistance I received in its preparation is fully acknowledged and disclosed in the paper. I have also cited any sources from which I used data, ideas or words, either quoted directly or paraphrased. I also certify that this paper was prepared by me specifically for this course.

Student's Signature: _______ _______________________

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Management Report for the Northern Napa Valley Winery

Executive Summary:

The Northern Napa Valley Winery Inc. has been approached to sell their excess grapes. The party who intends to purchase Northern’s excess grapes hopes to sell the excess as juice or for fermentation into their own wine. By analyzing the data provided in Exhibit 1 using multiple methods including various StatTools Summary Graphs and Time Series and Forecasting tests it the best method to accurately measure, forecast and predict Northern Napa Valley Winery’s 13 month sales from Sept 2008 to Sept 2009 is the Holt’s Exponential Smoothing forecast when deseasonalized and optimized. This method gives us the closest to the original data and also has the lowest MAPE value of the methods used.

Background

Ms. Patricia Quintana is a majority shareholder and Chief Executive Officer of Northern Napa Valley Winery Inc. Northern Napa Valley Winery owns the vineyards and wineries of Domaine Carneros, Gloria Ferrer and the boutique winery of Frog’s Leap. Originally, founded on a spot along Mill Creek known as the Frog Farm, Frog’s Leap winery was a family...