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CLASS LESSON PLAN

Class #16 – Introduction to Scenarios

Overview:

Scenarios, sometimes described as “memories of the future”, can be a very useful tool in foresight. They can allow leaders to foresee and plan for multiple plausible outcomes, and build resilience into their planning and strategies. Not all are fans of the process, suggesting that they are too disconnected from real-world management and can be an abdication of leadership, as illustrated by Harry Truman’s famous line, “Give me a one-handed economist…”. Others advocate more in favor of the value of scenarios arguing that they push leaders out of the status-quo mindset and uncover “disturbing” outcomes that would not otherwise been envisioned.

The framework forecasting process outlined by Peter Bishop defines two main forecasting stages: Baseline forecasting and alternative futures forecasting (scenarios). Developing scenarios bridges the gap between expected/baseline forecasts and the impacts created by disruptive change.

Well-developed, evidence-based scenarios can help to define and describe the potential outcomes that may result from uncertain change. They offer the practitioner a process to integrate uncertainty and disruptive change into the planning process. Scenarios also provide a perspective from which to explore implications of change in ways that can reveal unexpected opportunities or threats.

There are several useful examples of companies and other organizations that effectively use scenarios to help their leadership understand and prepare for potential change. This class will explore examples to provide context as a backdrop for student scenario development for their foresight projects. Specifically, students will explore the use of scenarios by Royal Dutch Shell, a recognized leader in development and strategic use of scenarios.

As preparation, students will explore a Harvard Business Review reading entitled “The Use and Abuse of Scenarios”. Complexity and...